Sunday, January 18, 2009

GM @ $3.93 USD

Ok, so it's up 7.38% since I last reported on it as a sell. However, I maintain that this is a long term losing position. Don't make the same mistake most major hedge fund managers regret (which is not unwinding losing positions fast enough).

If you are one of those traders who knows better and feels comfortable trading and making money off of this volatility, be my guest. But any day (actually, I'm thinking in March) this stock is probably going to take a big hit when people start to realize that this stock isn't going anywhere. Then we'll start to see the mechanics of a company being dismantled.

Even if this company gets government assistance in whatever form it takes, the only practical good it will serve is to "alleviate" the pain of workers and suppliers as this company makes its way out (pulling the band aid slowly). Essentially, it will only delay the envitable and make the current economic climate slightly more bearable as workers start to lose their jobs.

Also, be cautioned. I'm sure that most technical analysis would tell you that the price is below the moving average (depending on your time horizon), however, I think this is an environment where this type of analysis might not be prudent. Any slight bit of news can cause major mood swings in the stock price.

Long term sell
Short term - too unpredictably volatile

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