Prince William and Kate – Let the Market Decide

Apparently, Brits will bet on anything. I was just watching the BBC and there was a short clip on questions Brits were asking and what bookies were placing in terms of odds of various events happening at the wedding: Kate’s car breaking down, Prince Harry dropping the ring etc.

This got me to thinking about mathematically predicting the future. Not just in physical models (for instance forecasting weather) which is difficult enough, but also in these sort of abstract ideas. After all, how do you predict what is Prince Harry’s chance of dropping the ring? Let’s say you could even come up with a very convincing model that would give you one good guess.

Another method would be to let the invisible hand of the gambling market decide. Assuming you could get enough interested people to bid in the “market” on an individual question, having more or less people bid for or against any particular question can give you an indication as to whether the odds offered are too “generous” and allow you to recalibrate the odds directionally until you arrive at a relatively stable number.

For example, when asked: “What’s the chance of the Queen wearing a blue hat?” initially it’s even odds. However, people start doing their homework, statistical multi-factor regressions, etc and discover that she actually tends to wear a blue hat quite often (especially at royal weddings) and people starting overwhelmingly taking bets that she will wear a blue hat. If the bookie is paying attention, they will start moving the odds, maybe now offering 2:1 odds that she will wear a blue hat. People start fine tuning their model and continue to make bets until the odds rest at 3:1 (the current odds of the Queen wearing a blue hat). The bookie takes bets on either side taking the spread.

The invisible hand of the gambling market has determined the probability of the Queen wearing a blue hat. While we aren’t even sure what models were used, assuming intelligent people using real money have staked a “best guess” at what the appropriate value for the probability of the Queen wearing a blue hat is, we are given another robust answer.

Ship of Theseus as a Metaphor for Replacement Cost

Looking at the Parthenon being restored, it reminds me of another Greek concept: the ship of Theseus. It is essentially an identity dilemma: If you take care of something, but are forced to replace parts due to decay over time, is that object still the same? This is something I’m sure archeologists wrestle with when they rebuild replica parts to restore murals or structures for which the original parts are long gone. Even if they use the same material, artistry and methods, the original has lost something ineffable.

This concept has been extended several times with several unique spins, my favourite being Plato’s carriage, where Socrates and Plato exchange parts on their carriages until finally “Socrates’” carriage is made entirely of Plato’s original carriage and vice versa. At what point did the identity of the carriage change?

In a vain attempt to bring all my philosophizing back into the MBA realm of finance, it’s sort of interesting when you think about it in the context of the idea in accounting principle of replacement cost or M&A. While accounting will capture the physical quantities contained within a company’s finances, there also exists value beyond the sum of its parts in the same way you would expect an M&A transaction’s synergies to broaden the qualities of the combined entities: that seemingly ineffable quality.

Parthenon and the Golden Ratio

Today I visited the Parthenon which is one of my favourite buildings and the preeminent landmark of Athens and located in the Acropolis. And yet, many people are unaware of the beautiful mathematical design it holds in plain view. Built into the Parthenon’s design you will often discover that many porportions are designed to the golden ratio, also known as the divine proportion, the ratio that many Greek’s believed to be the source of proportional mathematical beauty.

Shown above: Parthenon

Many believed that this ratio occurred often in nature and was the basis for beautiful proportions (for example it appears in Leonardo Da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man as the ratio between the length of the arms and legs).  Another occurance is with Fibonacci numbers as the ratio between them is an approximation of this same ratio (Fibonacci numbers are numbers in a sequence in which the next number is the sum of the previous two numbers). The approximation becomes more accurate the further out you go. Note: It's only an approximation because the first two numbers are one and one.

The golden ratio is mathematically defined as follows:

(A + B) / A = A / B

Or in layman’s terms, the proportion between two measures is the same as the proportion of their combined length and the larger length. Note that this definition can be recursive and applied over multiple lengths repeatedly.

Also note, that the proof for the actual ratio is self is quite elegant:

(A + B) / A = A / B (Multiplying both sides by A x B we get)

AB + B^2 = A^2

0 = A^2 – AB – B^2

= A^2 – AB + 1/4 B^2 – 1/4 B^2 – B^2

= (A – 1/2 B)^2 – 5/4 B^2

Now assume that B is 1.

= (A – 1/2)^2 – 5/4

5/4 = (A – 1/2)^2

Sqrt(5) / 2 = A – 1/2

Therefore, the golden ratio, A = [1 + sqrt (5)] / 2

Note that this makes A approximately 1.62. (it is an irrational mathematical constant)

Intricate in its beauty, elegant in its simplicity.

Near the Parthenon was once the statue of Athena overlooking the city.

Shown above: Athena's perch from which she offered Victory to the Athenians, now long vacant.

Previously, this building was home to statue of the grey-eyed goddess who watched over her namesake and in her raised hand held Nike, the winged goddess of victory. While the statue is long gone, perhaps it is time for the Greeks to look after her and her fellow Olympians as they recover and protect artifacts of the past.

Athens Metro

The Athens Metro is one of the newest and most beautiful metro systems in the world despite (or rather because) it took an immensely long time to build. This is because as they dug, they had to stop because they often ran into old archeological ruins. Then they would stop digging with machines and archeologists would dig with toothbrushes. The metro plan was equal parts archeological dig as it was construction site.

However, the result is a brilliantly new metro system that includes exhibits and finds from their digs and the duality continues: it is both museum and metro station.

The fare is 1.40 euro for a 90 minute multi-trip ticket which needs to be validated. A day pass is 4 euro.

Greek Hospitality

I tend to have a recklessly casual travel style when it comes to recreational travel (e.g. going to Mt Olympus when it’s closed because I won't be back for a few years). While this often tends to get me lost, I'd be lying if I didn't also admit that this has led to some of my best experiences while travelling.

Having said that, it can also lead to me being at the mercy of the locals. While I'd like to think I have the street smarts to get by, I also have to admit that the kindness inherent in the Greek culture makes it particularly easy.

Maybe it’s because they have had a seafaring culture for centuries / millennia and are accustomed to disoriented visitors arriving from around the world, but I have always had a deep respect for Greek hospitality, an important theme in the Odyssey by Homer, one of my favourite books. This also reminds me of one of my favourite scenes: Book VIII – The Games, when Ulysses meets Euryalus.

Context: Ulysses is lost. It's the whole premise of the book. And throughout, he experiences either kindness or evil from different characters. In this book, he arrives on the shore of the House of Alcinous. During the feast, the blind poet, Demodocus, sings songs of Ulysses' exploits, ironically, not knowing he is in the room. Ulysses' weeping is noticed only by Alcinous, who proceeds to distract his guest by suggesting they compete in athletic competitions instead.

During the competition, Alcinous's son, Laodamas, the best boxer, thinks to invite Ulysses to participate and Euryalus foolishly insults him when Ulysses politely declines due to the ravages of “infinite trouble” he’s experienced making his heart heavy for home. Ulysses proceeds to throw the heaviest disc the furthest distance (without even taking off his jacket) and proceeds to challenge anyone and everyone to any contest of their choosing (except for running due to his old age, and except for Laodamas, Alcinous' son, of course, respecting the role of the host's family). Alcinous politely calls Euryalus an idiot and calls for more festivities, hoping to prove to Ulysses that while the Phaeacians were not known for their athletic prowess, he was hoping to prove that they are exceptionally hospitable: “extremely fond of good dinners, music, and dancing”.

After acknowledging the spectacle of dancing, Ulysses compliments Alcinous, to which Alcinous responds by asking the twelve chief men (thirteen with himself) to give him “a clean cloak, a shirt, and a talent of fine gold”. Having disrespected Ulysses by supposing him to be unathletic and breaking the Greek code of hospitality to foreigners, Euryalus apologizes by giving him a gift: a beautiful bronze sword. Ulysses, making peace with his new friend, accepts the gift graciously, remarking that he hopes Euryalus will never have need of it.

(Read the original as this paraphrasing doesn’t do justice to the original poetry. Plus, there is a hilarious adulterer's story of warning told by Demodocus of Hephaistos, Venus and Aries)

As my highschool english teacher once explained, the concept of gift giving was important in Greek culture in that it emphasized the role of both gift giver and acceptee. It symbolized the greatness of the giver to be able to offer a gift as well as the importance of the recipient by being shown respect through the offer of a gift.

Climbing Mount Olympus

This is an instruction guide for anyone who might be interested in visiting Mount Olympus on a student budget. I thought I should write this down as I had unusual difficulty getting details and will probably be back here again sometime. After arriving in Thessaloniki, I got instructions, searched the internet and otherwise asked around for how to climb Mount Olympus:

Getting to Litohoro from Thessaloniki

1. From Thessaloniki airport, take the 78 bus into the city (it goes along Tsimiski street), buy the two ride ticket which costs 1 euro (allows two trips within 90 minutes if I read the instructions correctly)
2. From Thessaloniki, take the 31 bus from Egnatias street (one major street north of Tsimiski)
3. Take the 31 bus to the end of the line to Makedonia bus station
4. Go to the booth for KTEL (Greece public transit, similar to Greyhound) Platform 4 – Litohoro (or Litochoro, multiple spellings)
5. Buy a ticket (student fair is for Greek students only), one way was 8 euro, return was 14
6. Go to Platform 4 and take the bus (it is quite frequent, between one or two hours per bus)
7. The bus stops at Katerini (Don’t get off)
8. The ride to Litohoro is about an hour and drops you off in the city center

Note: There is a KTEL bus from Athens to Litohoro too. I don’t know where it leaves from, but I’ll find out tomorrow when I go to Athens from Litohoro.

Litohoro

The entire climb is along the E4 International Walking trail. Here you have two choices:

Choice 1: Scenic climb From Litohoro to Prionia

From the city center (the water fountain where the KTEL bus drops you off), walk straight past the Hotel Aphrodite and go right, past the residential housing, school and cemetery and past the power / utility plant (There are some dual language signs pointing the way to Olympus National Park).

You will reach the first gate which has signs saying “Olympus National Park”. The climb from Litohoro to Prionia is through the gorge of Olympus, and takes between 4.5 to 5 hours (or more if you take your time, relax and take photos) to go up. There are beautiful cliff faces and crystal clear waterfalls.

 

Choice 2: Skip with Taxi to Prionia (cost 25 to 30 euro one way, 20 minute drive)

If you come to Litohoro in the off season (season this year starts May 13th), then the refuges will be closed and your best bet is to climb the gorge. It is absolutely beautiful and mildly challenging. I promise you will enjoy it's undulating terrain. However, many people "cheat", take a taxi to the top and climb down or climb up and hitchhike down. It is a 5 hour hike one way afterall.

Above: Like Mount Kinabalu in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia (which I plan on doing again with a friend of mine this summer), you can expect to see a lot of this on your way up.

If you come to Litohoro when the refuges are open, then take the taxi to Prionia as it will be taxing enough just to make it to the refuge which is the midpoint from Prionia to the peaks of Mt. Olympus.

People often give advice to “book in advance”, but I was unable to find any good websites or information on ANYTHING, transport to Litohoro from Thessaloniki, accommodation etc.

I’m currently staying in the Hotel Mirtos in Litohoro which is charging me 30 euro a night (keep in mind this is the off season, I think I’m the only guest and they are currently under construction so I have no idea how much it costs when the tourists come in the on season). Tel 23520 81398.

Apparently, Refuge A (which from what I gather is the best one to be in) can be reached at 23520 81800. They spoke English when I called.

Good luck!

Travelling in Europe

The bizarre truth is that it’s actually cheaper to visit other parts of Europe than it is to stay in London. With the end of the term (and MBA program) upon us, many students (exchange especially) are planning a variety of trips before the academic program is over.

(Shown above: Bull fight, La Plaza de Toros de Las Ventas, Madrid, Spain)

So far this week, I’ve been to Madrid, Spain and Bordeaux, France. I'm travelling with a few students from LBS and we are driving down the coast of the south of France and into northern Spain, visiting coastal towns as we make our way down and are currently San Sebastian, Spain. My French has been a bit rusty, but enough to decipher menus, make orders, ask directions and generally get around. It has been almost 5 years since my CFES days.

(Shown above: Chateau Margaux, Bordeaux, France)

(Shown below: San Sebastian, Spain)

Having visited Lisbon, Portugal and Rome, Italy there is only one other country I need to visit to collect my PIGS set: I plan on visiting Greece in early April for my final block week course: Service Management Field trip, a consulting project based in Thessaloniki, Greece.

I have always enjoyed Greek mythology, especially after reading the Odyssey in high school which was one of my favourite books of all time. I will certainly enjoy spending time in Athens visiting some of the ancient ruins. Greece is also home to many famous mathematicians and philosophers that derived such elegant concepts such as the approximation of pi or the golden ratio. I'm really looking forward to the trip.

Chinese New Year in London

xin nian kuai le; gong hai fat choi; selamat tahun cina baru

Earlier this week, a few of the exchange students at LBS went to celebrate Chinese New Year in typical fashion, over a splendid meal, in London’s “alternative” Chinatown near Queensway. While the lineup was fairly long (we ended up waiting for 45 minutes due to exceptionally high traffic volume), the service was otherwise very good and the meal was delicious.

Earlier that week, I was also lucky enough to catch a dragon dance show in London’s official Chinatown near Piccadilly Circus while buying some groceries.

MBA Games - Rotman Team Kick off

Rotman is putting together a team for this year’s MBA games, hosted by Schulich from Jan 7th to 10th. I saw how much fun they had last year that I missed because I was on the study tour and wanted to make it a priority to participate if possible this year (postponing my flight out to London).

Last year’s team was the first time Rotman had competed in six years I’m told and was put together last minute. However, building on last year’s interest, the efforts and energy of our current organizing executive was quite obvious as they were eager to bring us all into the fold to compete and have fun at the games.

To our competitor colleagues at other MBA schools: “See you at the games!”

Islamic Finance - International Consulting Project

A new initative at Rotman (although you wouldn't know it as it has simply exploded this year) is the International Consulting Project. Laura Wood, Director of International Programs, has started a new research type project that engages students to work with professors on international topics. Some countries involved are the G20, Middle East, Israel, Africa and potentially others.

I myself am participating in the Islamic Finance ICP with Walid Hejazi, the professor who leads the Middle East study tour.

Yesterday, we were invited to attend the kick off event for the Islamic Finance EMBA course which will be offered in Jan 2011. The keynote speaker was David Dodge, Senior Advisor, Bennett Jones and former Governor of the Bank of Canada. He spoke about the growing interest in Islamic finance and how there it is common for people to see Shariah compliant instruments as simply "no interest" and how this superficial understanding does not encompass the fundamental rational for the structure of these products.

I am looking forward to working with my four other colleagues on this research project to look at Islamic financial instruments.

Flight of Fancy: What If...? A Market for Bid Points

One common theme I've heard is that MBA's are often upset when they don't get all the elective courses that they want. While I certainly can't complain, it brings up an interesting question: "What if someone like me was able to sell their bid points? What would I get for them? And how would you value them?"

For example, my course choices weren’t very restrictive, I got 500 points to bid on four courses, most of which I could have gotten with a zero bid. Whereas, Mr(s). Ambitious was trying to take TMP and Value Investing while going on Exchange (physically impossible, Value Investing is a year long course and Exchange means you are physically gone). If there existed a mechanism (and therefore a market) for me to transfer my points for a price, what would I get for them? What should they be worth? Clearly, there is currently some "market inefficiency" as we are both unsatisfied: Mr(s). Ambitious because they didn't get all the courses they wanted [net deficiency] and me because I didn't realize the full value of my bid points because I had more than I could use - [net surplus].

Well let’s make some assumptions:

• Rotman tuition is C$35k per year (let’s not include first year as it’s common, or you can adjust the value of points accordingly if you feel second year courses are more / less important)
• You take 10 elective courses in your second year
• You are given 1000 points with which to bid

A “book value” of the points would simply be C$35k / 1000 points or about $35 per point.

But keep in mind that when something is inherently useful, especially in a scenario where a few points margin can mean the difference between getting the course you really want versus having to settle for a less popular course, there can potentially be bidding wars from “oversubscription” (points trade at a multiple above their book value) especially if they were in limited supply.

While people are paying C$70+k to go to school, for a marginal $35 x 100 points (a rough approximation of the average points allocated per student / course) or $3500 you can get any course you want (including the highly coveted TMP and Value Investing – which includes a trip to visit Warren Buffet – one of the reasons why this course is so wildly popular).

If you could some how do it, you could see how much additional probability you have of getting into the classes you wanted and put a dollar value on how badly you wanted to be in that class (regression analysis), you can determine a price you’d be willing to pay to attend that class. For example: Would there be a correlation between the number of points you consumed to get into classes of your choice against your overall earning power once out of university (thinking along the lines of DCF to value bid points like common shares).

And also imagine if this market had a “market maker”. For example, the PSO will (create and) sell you points for a certain value (either regulated and pre-determined or floating with the market). Students could liquidate their points at market value and get money back or buy points of the market to be more competitive for course selection and the school could potentially get revenue from selling points.

And since you have a market with underlying assets, imagine if you created financial instruments for those assets (shorts, puts, and calls for bid points, futures).

And imagine if other schools had market systems (I’m told that bidding systems are not uncommon at other MBA schools), you could trade between these. Or even other programs!

Of course, these points would inherently have an “expiry” as to their value (you wouldn’t want to be holding (take delivery of) 5000 MIT Engineering points if you were going to Stanford Law School).

There are some interesting implications. For instance, a new ranking system for schools where the relative value of a course is determined by the market value (determined by students taking courses there) in real time with comparisons to year over year values. Example: Would an engineering calculus class go for more at Waterloo or Toronto? Could you couple this with flexibility between schools (accreditation programs) which allow students to take equivalent courses at other schools and what do you get?

It would be a more sophisticated and real-time version of tuition regulated by the market. Taken to the extreme, here is another idea: drop the original tuition completely and have students buy bid points for classes. And then what if you were able to connect this market to actual financial markets? An S&P Index of Undergraduate studies to benchmark the valuation of your individual class’ performance.

Another thought: If the value of courses in a particular faculty started to "overheat" would that be a leading indicator of oversupply of labour in a particular industry in 4 years time?

[LAIST] A Weekend in Rio de Janeiro

[LAIST Tour Begins, Fazenda Tozan, Churrascaria – Nova Pampa, Port of Santos, Deloitte, Embraer, Natura, Gol de Letra, Bom Bril, Agencia Click, Nextel Institute, May 6, Rio, Rio Weekend, Petrobras, PREVI]

Saturday in Rio – Christ the Redeemer

We had planned to visit Sugar Loaf Mountain, but the conditions were not appropriate for a visit so we ended up going to Christ the Redeemer. We also picked up some supplies for the soccer match the next day. We also got a chance to check out the local night life.

Flamengo versus Sao Paulo

Our guide took us to a soccer match at Maracana between Flamengo (the soccer club with the second largest fan base, second only to Manchester United). As we were walking to the Metro station, already half a street away from our hotel and decked out in Flamengo gear, we were being heckled by a Sao Paulo fan.

We were certainly sitting in the right section as there was almost as much entertainment behind us as there was on the field. The fans are passionate, cheering through the entire game non-stop and waving their massive flags. While we didn’t understand the Portuguese cheers, we shouted similar phonetic sounds while mimicking the same motions.

While the game ended in a 1:1 tie, it was certainly an experience to be there when the team scored a goal (as well as each time there was a “controversial” call). I can understand why this experience and culture would be described as a “religion” by our guide.

Giant Cheerio

"Oh my god. Brian, there's a message in my alphabits. It says 'oooooo'." ~ Peter
"Peter, those are Cheerios." ~ Brian, Family Guy

Miranda's team was in the General Mills competition and she mentioned an idea that was critisized as a "Giant Cheerio".

One of her team mates decided to carry the joke a little further. It was delicious.

It was by far the most clever and delicious thing I've ever seen anyone make out of anything ever.

Gravity as a Analogy to Globalization

Our professor just used one of the most clever analogies for international trade I've ever seen. It's surprising how much the physics of gravity can model relationships involving size and proximity.

The formula for the physics of gravity is:

Force = Gravitational Constant x Mass 1 x Mass 2 / Distance ^ 2

In this analogy:

• Force -> Strength of trade relationship
• Gravitational Constant -> Trade coefficient <-- trade barriers / regulations / tarrifs?
• Mass 1 -> Size (GDP as proxy?) of country 1
• Mass 2 -> Size (GDP as proxy?) of country 2
• Distance -> Distance

Our professor, Blum, took it a step further and did a logarithmic deconstructed the formula to further show how changing different values of each variable (pulling different strings) results in intuitive changes in the relationship. For example: Decreasing distance between countries increases. He even quotes his research (2004). This is his criticism of the idea that the world is truly "flat".

Imagine the game theory implications also. If you could use this relationship to predict how countries would trade and grow, you could build a model with multiple components (countries) to see how they'd develop.

So... It turns out that when Roger Martin tells us that Rotman has a world class research faculty which impacts the material we learn in our classes, he certainly wasn't lying.

Past Behaviour Predicting Future Performance

Often we've heard the phrase "Past behaviour is [not] a good predictor of future performance".

The above sentence includes the word [not] in finance, but excludes the word [not] when dealing with people (I think most psychologists would suggest). In short, history predicts people, but not companies or markets.

It kind of bothers me when I see maxims which are essentially identical in one case (individuals), but don't apply en mass (for groups). However, it reminds me of an interesting result I noticed relating to random motion.

If you have a dot in space, and you define it's movement as being "random", over time, the dot will essentially remain in the same spot (the expected value of random movement for one dot is zero change over time).

However, if you have multiple dots on a page, each who's movement is individually defined as "random", over time, you will actually experience diffusion. This is a bit counter intuitive as you would expect that since each individual's dot is random and because of the above result (where individual dots with random movement are expected not to stray to far from their original position) that individual dots won't move. If I'm not mistaken, the diffusion should actually take a normal distribution.

Legacy: The Million Dollar Question

I look at my classmates, what rock stars they will be in the future and I ask them: "What do you want your legacy to be? 10 years from now, when you make heaps of money and your tax accountant suggests you need to make a million dollar contribution to a charity, where will you put your money? Would you want your name on a junior highschool? A cancer ward in a hospital? A park bench?"

I used to ask my friends at McMaster Engineering to remember McMaster in their donations (Mac Lab Endowment comes to mine) in a half joking attempt to "keep DeGroote out of McMaster" (Micheal DeGroote has been buying up parts of McMaster including the business school and life sciences department... We've been wondering when they'd rename the school DeGroote University).

Joking aside, the question is intended to provoke introspection. Most people will give to something they feel is a worthy cause or something which helped define them as a person. When presented with the prospect of where to make a significant contribution (the amount itself is trivial, whether people feel their ambition would be better accomplished with 10k or a billion dollars is not important - increasing the fictitious sum of money is an easy enough task) people think a little harder about what's important to them and you get some surprisingly personal answers. I'd also like to think that people learn a little bit more about themselves when confronted with the altruistic challenge.

Constant Dissatisfaction: Google's Approach to Understanding New Media

Jonathan Lister, Country Manager for Google Canada came to give a talk at Rotman about what he calls "Constant Dissatisfaction: Google's Approach to Understanding New Media".

He highlights 3 major changes in technology
1. Ubiquitous Access
2. Cheap Storage
3. Falling Costs of Production

A few interesting points he raised:
- Google Wave released today. Its a new product which integrates many social features like photos and comments. My initial reaction was that it looks an awful lot like Google's version of Facebook.

- there are 20h of video uploaded every 5 minutes on Youtube. There is a shift towards paid premium content which has major implications for the media and advertising industry

- Google's search page has a unique web metric: "Get people OFF our website as fast as possible". They recognize that they are always "one click away from losing market share" and as a result have four focuses for their search engine:
1. Size of index
2. Speed
3. Relevancy
4. User Experience

- they have developed Ad Exchange, a sort of stock exchange of advertising (spot prices). They hope to improve on what they percieve as the inefficiency in display ads

Google's DNA
1. Innovation, not Instant Perfection - Launch early and often
2. Focus on the User and All Else Will Follow
What is scarce? User patience
3. You don't have to be at your desktop need an answer
4. A License to Pursue Your Dreams - 20% Projects
Google News as a needs based project organically spawned from the events of Sept 11
5. Data is Apolitical
6. Morph Projects, Don't kill them
7. Share as much information as you can
8. Make money without being evil
9. Creativity loves constraints

Prognosticate - 5 Google Myths

1. Big beats small: fast beats slow
2 . You need all 4P's: for many brands there are now just 3P's (not price, promotion is less relevant - free flow of info) - Youtube symphony, place reduced by globalization, product is staring role
3. Mass marketing is impersonal: today it is possible to engage 1:1 - on a mass scale
4. Marketing can't be accountable: marketing is the new finance (60s / 70s - tied to actions and responses) - quants are starting to move from Wall st to Madison ave
5. Management comes from the top: - Wisdom of crowds is creating a new bottom-up style of management. For example, Doodle for Google - a project getting kids to design Google's logo: Egypt orphanages and the "my Egypt" project

One of the notable points he mentioned is that creativity thrives with constraints. A very counter intuitive argument, he explained how when you are faced with constraints it requires to you to create unique solutions to overcome those challenges.

I apologize for the format of my notes, but there was so many interesting points it was tricky capturing all of it.


Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

St. Patrick's Day - A Time for Optimism?

The market has started to respond to positive news. A few banks reporting positive earnings. Interest rates at near zero levels. Housing market with increased sales on MLS by 8% since January. Although early, signs are starting to point to a recovery. It might be a good time to buy, but is it a false positive? There are still some major shoes to drop, although GM reports they are working through March and does not need more funds for the moment, but how much longer after that? Will the company be able to turn it around or can we expect another major failure?

Just a few moments ago, Canada reported a 5% drop in manufacturing shipments (a slowing decline - but a decline compounded by previous declines) with automotive being a big drag (without which it is a more moderate 1.2% compared to Dec according to BNN).

Remember, the stock market is a leading indicator so it will be the first place that starts to improve in an economic upswing (unlike employment which is a lagging indicator for those of you with employment issues). Keeping the fact that a recovery is expected in 6 months to a year, it might be a good time buy if you can sustain a bit of volatility.

The Ground Hog Day Effect

In the same vein as the Super Bowl effect, is there a Ground Hog Day effect on the Stock Market? Is the ground hog seeing his shadow forecast grim news on the horizon? Or just change?

Occasionally, we have to have some fun with the market (especially markets like this one).

Steelers vs. Cardinals - Who's better for the Stock Market?

http://www.snopes.com/business/bank/superbowl.asp

Data mining at it's finest. Snopes looks into some of the myths about how the market is affected by various external factors, particularly the results of the Super Bowl.