Thursday, October 1, 2009

Stackelberg and First Mover Advantage

We have to be careful here, as first mover response has a very specific definition and I believe there are some inherent assumptions here. Most of us would associate first mover response (used colloquially) as when a company creates a new product and is the first to market. It seems as if the theory we learned to describe Stackelberg (essentially a Cournot model where one firm has the opportunity to move first) has a good description for a very specific definition of "first mover advantage".

Intuitively, you can predict that you can exert a form of control over your competitors ('the market') by making a first move. How this differs from Cournot is that Cournot assumes that both firms move together at the same time, and their decisions are unverifyable by the other company. In Stackelberg, by knowing the response functions of both companies (and understanding that the more one firm creates, the less another firm will be incented to create) and confirming quantities early, it affects what the other company will be able to benefit.

The important factor is that the ambiguity and uncertainty of what the other firm produces is removed. The Cournot model is heavily affected by the anticipation of what the other firm will do, rather than the certainty. The result is that optimal quantities in both models change (as demonstrated by the practical and general solving of the formulas in each case). In the Stackelberg case, rather than having to solve an algebraic equation where Q1 is 'floating' (uncertain and expressed as a formula related to what firm 1 produces), Q2 is simply expressed as a formula where Q1 is a known quantity. In that way, firm 1 can 'force' firm 2 to produce their 'optimal' quantity given that firm 1 has put a stake in the ground by actually creating a certain number of units and making sure firm 2 knows.

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